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Record wet winter?

As I type this clouds are once more gathering to the west with the promise of yet more rain.  It is already my wettest January here in Haytor since I started recording in 2002. As of 1800 GMT 20/1/14 my rainfall total stands at 274.5mm. If you add this to the December total of 407.7mm you get 682.2mm for the winter so far. A whopping 1000mm (1 metre) of rain is certainly possible for the whole winter period. Of course this is the last thing folk on Dartmoor need as the ground is completely saturated, so what of the future?

Well I can see no end in sight to this onslaught. Drier and very cold air is sitting to our east over Scandinavia but has been reluctant to move west and early next week deep Atlantic lows will dive southeast into Britain. Some cold air from the east will be drawn in, so there is a risk of some snow but there is also great uncertainty in the detail. The chart below shows one of many possibilities.

Rtavn1743

This chart (click on it to enlarge) is from an American numerical weather prediction model and is valid for 0000 GMT next Tuesday, a week ahead forecast. The low pressure system over south Wales will give a lot of rain over Dartmoor as it tracks southeast and the pale blue line indicates that cold air is not far away highlighting the risk of snow. Other models give a different evolution but all of them give  rain. Outside chance that once the low moves away south then it could turn dry and frosty for a while, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Interesting times ahead once again for us meteorologists, but not good news for our beautiful landscape and pot-holed roads up here on Dartmoor. Unless it snows of course! :-)

A wet two weeks ahead, risk of snow at times.

Well the wind is howling round my house up here in Haytor and the rain has been lashing against the windows.

This sets the scene for the next two weeks which look to be wet with depression after depression racing towards the UK, then shearing off to the west of Scotland. A lot of rain is on the cards and plenty of wind too. Colder interludes will be brighter, but with the wind in the west, still showery. On Thursday 19th wintry showers are likely with perhaps a longer spell of sleet and snow above 300 metres. But it won’t last, as yet more rain and mild air returns on Friday.

I guess people are wondering what the weather will be like this Christmas, well all I can say is that it will not be dry and it will not be especially cold. Having said that, the weather will turn colder during Christmas week and snow will be an increasing risk, potentially some stormy weather too. Stay tuned!

Seasons greetings from a soggy, boggy Haytor.

Big change in weather during first week of December

I have been looking with some interest at the numerical weather prediction models during the past few days. All of them have consistently been showing a cold front marching steadily eastwards across the Atlantic during 1st to 4th December. Nothing unusual in that except that the cold air behind the front originated from some very cold (for time of year) air over Arctic Canada. The effect of this will be to collapse our high pressure around 4th December and introduce a progressively cold Arctic airmass into the UK with the risk of widespread snow by the 6th. But that is not the whole story … as the cold air comes across the Atlantic, some model runs are indicating that tropical air moving north may interact with this (see previous blog on climate change) in such a way as to explosively develop a deep Atlantic depression bringing in severe gales as well as rain and snow. I’m not saying that this is definitely how it will all pan out, but I am pretty confident now that big changes are on the way next week with very cold conditions set to come down from the NW with a real risk of widespread snow. I’ll be issuing my regular forecast for Dartmoor tomorrow, so more details then.

Our climate has already changed

This is not a blog about Climate Change per se as I do not get into such debates. I accept that the world has undoubtedly warmed in the past 100 years. However, have you all noticed the weird weather which is occurring more frequently in the past 5 years? As a meteorologist I remain amazed at some of the weird weather charts that keep cropping up, the clincher for me was the recent tornado outbreak in the States. Although not unprecedented, it was a Spring situation occurring in November with terrible consequences. The Phillipine typhoon was unfortunate in that it made landfall at its strongest, but they don’t normally do that? Was that just unlucky – maybe, but in the context of other world weather events, maybe not. Now, over the Atlantic the weather chart to me looks “weird” and some forecast charts even weirder with tropical systems moving north meeting unusually widespread (for the time of year) very cold air in the Arctic. It is my view that Climate Change is happening right here, right now, not in the future.  What does this mean for our weather on Dartmoor? To be honest I don’t really know! However, it could mean that we will have a benign winter, possibly even record breaking dryness, but more likely we will have to remain alert to the real possibility of some extreme weather which may be in the form of floods, violent  storms or heavy disruptive snowfalls.  We could be in for a rough ride. Stay tuned.

First snow expected Tuesday 19th

The cold spell that I talked about in my last blog is now looking more certain as very cold air moves across Dartmoor on Monday night. The bitter N to NW wind is likely to bring a mix of hail and snow showers on Monday night and during Tuesday. Difficult to say how much snow there is likely to be, but going on past experience about an inch above 300 metres asl would be a reasonable stab. After Tuesday snow showers are likely to die out when winds swing NE’ly and it becomes mainly dry and frosty with some ice. I will be updating my weekly forecast tomorrow at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm .

Winter coming on week of 19th?

There are indications now in NWP model outputs of a plunge of very cold air from the Arctic bringing snow to Scotland next Monday 18th with wintry conditions on Dartmoor by Wednesday 20th. Far too earlier to talk about severity, but after a benign autumn so far, it will come as a shock and at the very least we will see some frost on Dartmoor with perhaps a few snow showers. Stay tuned, probability of cold weather is increasing and is now rated at 70%.

Introduction to the site

Hi, on this blog I intend to talk about upcoming or present interesting weather on Dartmoor. It might be about heavy snow, torrential rain, heatwaves or just some unusual facts. Hope you enjoy it! Although I have disabled the comment facility, you are very welcome to comment on any article by e-mailing me on will@lyneside.demon.co.uk . You can also subscribe to this blog and hopefully then be informed when new articles appear. Please use the categories (selected at bottom) to navigate/select articles.